DraftKings NFL: Thanksgiving Breakdown

DraftKings NFL: Thanksgiving Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Thursday's Thanksgiving slate includes three games and features one that really stands out from the rest. The Bills-Lions matchup has a 54.5-point total and Buffalo's 32-point implied total is the highest any team has had all season. The matchup will be a popular target for game stacks, and rightly so considering DraftKings gave us some soft salaries this week. I thought it would be best to breakdown the slate by position. I've highlighted the top value options for cash games and added some ideas for tournaments. Speaking of GPP strategy on small slates like this one, it's best to plan for specific game scripts and then build lineups that make sense. Finding some leverage should be a priority and it's often easier to find because of all the chalk and condensed rostership. 

The Games

Over/UnderRoad TeamRoad 
Implied Total
Home TeamHome 
Implied Total
54.5Buffalo Bills32Detroit Lions22.5
45.5New York Giants18Dallas Cowboys27.5
42.5New England Patriots20Minnesota Vikings22.5

Quarterbacks

Allen is by far the highest projected player on the slate in terms of both value and raw points. The Bills have the highest implied total we've seen all season at 32 for a prime matchup against the Lions. Allen's salary has also fallen considerably after a string of mediocre performances. Those factors combined are why he projects so well and make him the best option for cash games. 

The Cowboys also have a relatively high implied total of 27.5 for their home matchup against the Giants. Prescott has topped 20 fantasy points in three consecutive games and also projects well for his salary. We've seen him priced at $6,600 or higher in every game this season and the sudden drop doesn't make any sense. He's good enough value to where rostering him in cash games would be acceptable, especially because there is plenty to spend up for at WR and RB. For tournaments, I love the idea of stacking Prescott with Dalton Schultz and either CeeDee Lamb or Michael Gallup

Running Backs

Stevenson projects as the top value at RB and he will be the most popular at the position because of it. Part of the reason he has such a nice projection is because of what he's done in the passing game recently. He has at least six receptions in three of the last four weeks as he's clearly established himself as the Patriots No. 1 RB. The other reason behind the projection is his salary, which is too cheap for the role he plays. 

Despite being $600 cheaper, Cook actually projects about the same as Saquon Barkley ($8,000), who has a tough matchup on the road in Dallas. Cook and the Vikings are home favorites against the Patriots and the likely game script bodes well for the running game. I wouldn't be concerned about last week's dud in the blowout loss to Dallas. Prior to that, Cook had scored at least 25 fantasy points in three of five games and continues to be involved in the passing game as well.

Singletary had 20 touches last week and he's scored three TDs in the past two weeks. Those are nice numbers for a player with that cheap of a price tag. He's expected to be the second most popular RB with the other reason being the need for salary at QB and WR. If you're looking to differentiate in large-field GPPs, consider James Cook ($4,400). He had 11 carries for 86 yards last week and even drew two targets. If you're playing for a Bills blowout, he's definitely someone to consider based on the bargain salary.  

Wide Receivers

St. Brown is another player who's salary has mysteriously dropped. He was $7,200 last week and $7,600 a few weeks before that. That's a quite a difference for no apparent reason and it's why he projects as the top value at WR. The Lions likely will be playing from behind as well, which would be an obvious boost to St. Brown and the passing game. 

I mentioned that this is the best matchup of the season for the Bills, at least on paper. It's also the cheapest we've seen Diggs priced since Week 3. He's going to be popular as result and I plan on rostering him cash games. For tournaments and especially in lineups without Josh Allen, consider fading Diggs for someone like Justin Jefferson ($8,200), who's going to be less popular and is always a good leverage option when that's the case based on his enormous ceiling potential in any matchup. 

Lamb disappointed last week when he scored just 9.5 fantasy points despite the Cowboys putting up 40 points. Nevertheless, he's one of the top options at WR considering Dallas has a hefty 27.5-point total. We just saw him hit a 41-point ceiling against the Packers two weeks ago on 11 catches for 150 yards and two scores. His range of outcomes seems wider than that of Diggs or St. Brown, however. 

Looking at the cheaper range, you could argue that Gabe Davis ($5,300) is the most underpriced player on the slate based on how high his ceiling is. This is the first time he's been less than $6K all season much less $5,300. He's one of my favorite tournament options on the slate, but most everyone will feel the same way. Jakobi Meyers ($5,100) will be less popular and I'd consider him if DeVante Parker (knee) is ruled out. 

Tight Ends

Schultz has caught at least five passes in three of the last four games. He will be the most popular TE on the slate. He was among the popular last week as people thought he was a bargain at $4,300. Now's he's $500 cheaper and has an even better matchup. 

Knox was popular last week as well and that's going to be the case again, especially after he caught seven balls for 70 yards. He's just too cheap for the type of upside he has with Josh Allen throwing to him. Considering there isn't much for cheap value at other positions, it makes to roster two TEs in certain lineups. 

Hockenson will be the least popular of these three strictly because he's more expensive. He's seen a ton of volume since arriving in Minnesota, drawing at least nine targets in all three of his games. He could offer a bit of leverage in GPPs and makes in sense in double TE builds as well. 

Defense/Special Teams

  • Minnesota Vikings vs. NE ($3,100)

The Vikings project as the best value at defense, mostly because of a home matchup against Mac Jones and the struggling patriots offense. There going to be the most popular which means they're the best option for cash games. For tournaments, spending up for the Dallas Cowboys ($3,700) would be a way to get some easy leverage. 

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ryan Belongia
Ryan is the top-ranked DFS soccer player on RG, reigning King of the Pitch Champion at DraftKings and 2021 finalist for FSWA's Soccer Writer of the Year.
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