This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
The first two games this series were fascinating. Atlanta picked up a shocking road win in Game 1, but Milwaukee bounced back with a blowout in Game 2. That's what you'd expect from the better club, but it's deadlocked headed back to Atlanta. That makes tonight absolutely critical, with the winner of a 1-1 series taking the series 73.3 percent of the time in NBA history. That's definitely something to monitor, so let's go ahead and get into it.
Trae Young, ATL vs. MIL ($43)
There's no doubt Trae just endured his worst game these playoffs, but he was unstoppable before that rare dud. That's clear when you see that he had posted at least 35 Yahoo points in all 13 postseason games before while averaging 30.5 points and 10.5 assists over that span. What makes that even crazier is Young only shot 42 percent from the field and 32 percent from three-point range while seeing some of the highest volume of any player in the league. He's actually leading all active players with a 35 percent usage rate in this postseason while also taking over 23 shots a night. As long as that continues, Young is impossible to avoid.
Jrue Holiday, MIL at ATL ($31)
Holiday has seen his fair share of struggles during this playoff run, but his recent play is a decent indicator of how exceptional he can be. The UCLA product has managed at least 31 Y! points in six straight while averaging 41 fantasy points. That's brilliant from someone in this salary range, and it's clear Atlanta has no one to cover Holiday with Trae's subpar defense and Bogdan Bogdanovic limping.
Guard to Avoid
Bogdan Bogdanovic, ATL vs. MIL ($20)
You probably could have seen this coming from the last sentence in the Holiday write-up. The simple fact is Bogdan is not healthy right now. He's been struggling to get up and down the court since Game 5 of the Philly series, and it's evident in his fantasy production. In fact, Bogdanovic hasn't cracked 17 Yahoo points in five straight while only providing 16 Y! points per game across 23 minutes. Those are terrible averages from one of the most expensive players on this slate, and we simply can't use Bogey until we see he's fully healthy.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL at ATL ($54)
The first thing everyone needs to do is put Giannis in their Megastar slot and then build from there. He's expensive, but is worth every penny on a one-game slate. The thing that makes Giannis so valuable is his floor having scored at least 36 Yahoo points in all 13 postseason contests. He's also produced at least 48 fantasy points in 11 of those while providing a 55-point average. That's obviously amazing and it makes Giannis the best option on the board, no matter how big the slate is.
Kevin Huerter, ATL vs. MIL ($17)
With Bogdanovic nicked up and De'Andre Hunter out for the rest of the postseason, Huerter has become one of the go-to players in Atlanta's offense. He's been all over the map in terms of production, but scoring at least 42 Y! points in two of his last four indicates how special he can be. More importantly, Huerter is averaging 14 shots over that stretch while logging 38 minutes. That sort of usage is hard to find from a $17 player, and he should continue to do big things in this critical Game 3.
Forward to Avoid
Khris Middleton, MIL at ATL ($32)
This is easily our riskiest fade, but we have to stay away from some expensive players when we have Young and Giannis in our lineups. Using those two makes it nearly impossible to get Middleton in, and that's the main reason we're fading him. What's also concerning is that his shot looks broken right now as he's only shooting 34 percent from the field and 17 percent from three-point range in this series. Middleton is way too good to be doing that poorly, and we're not going to select him until he shows flashes he's out of that dreadful slump.
Brook Lopez, MIL at ATL ($19)
There are really only two centers you can use in this series, with Bro-Lo being the better of the two options. We say that because Lopez has been equally as productive as Capela, but remains nearly $10 lower. The big man is averaging 28 Yahoo points across his last 10 outings while doing that damage in fewer than 10 shot attempts a night. That's a testament to Lopez's defense, and it's scary to think how good he could be if he scored 20 raw points to go along with those stout defensive numbers.
Center to Avoid
Clint Capela, ATL vs. MIL ($27)
Milwaukee has made minced meat of centers throughout the year, and it's clearly hurting Capela. The Bucks don't play traditional basketball since they stretch out Lopez to the three-point line and play Giannis at the five when Lopez is off the floor, making things extremely difficult on a traditional big like Capela. That has led to him averaging 25.1 Y! points across his last five outings, one of the worst stretches of his impressive season. That's not good enough for a $27 player, especially when we have sub-$20 players posting higher averages.