MLB Betting: September Futures Update

MLB Betting: September Futures Update

This article is part of our MLB Betting series.

I am going to cover last month's article which was written on August 19th and then update with the current odds as of September 27th. It is amazing that we have just one week left in the baseball season and so many questions still yet to be answered.

AL MVP

Shohei Ohtani has locked up this award as a -3333 to -4500 favorite. Vladimir Guerrero, Jr is +750 to +800.

AL CY YOUNG

This race has completely changed from a month ago as Lance Lynn and Carlos Rodon ended up getting hurt and Gerrit Cole struggled. This opened the door for Robbie Ray at -200. Cole is still +155 to +165 and in it. If the Jays make the playoffs, I think Ray wins it. If they don't I think the door is open for Cole to take it in a very tight race.

NL MVP

Fernando Tatis Jr has dropped to +350 to +400 as the Padres have gone in the tank over the last month. While Tatis has had a MVP type year, the fact that Bryce Harper really turned it on over the last two months and the Phillies still have a shot to win the NL East put him as the favorite at -330.

I wrote about Juan Soto around the All-Star Break when he was +8000!!! I only said that he would have to go on a serious run, but I wanted to point out the huge odds. Well, that huge run happened and now Soto is 3rd at +450 to +500.

With just one week left in the season, I would take a shot on Soto being able to steal this award with his historic 2nd half run. It should be a very tight vote for the NL MVP.

NL CY YOUNG

The props market can be crazy and things happen that you don't see coming. I didn't even write up Max Scherzer last month. He had just been traded to the Dodgers and Corbin Burnes had become the front runner for NL Cy Young. Fast forward a month later, Scherzer has gone on an incredible run and now the favorite at -160. Burnes is still close at +105, but I think Max wins it as the Dodgers are now at 100 wins.

MLB PLAYOFFS

With just one week left in the regular season, we have a couple of close races left. The Dodgers are a 10% chance to win the NL West and the Phillies are 10% to win the NL East.

The tightest race is for the AL Wild Card as the Yankees and Red Sox are 75-80% favorites to win, but the Blue Jays, Mariners, and A's are still mathematically alive. The Jays are the highest at 40% and if their bats get hot again, they could win it.

The Red Sox have three games left with the Orioles and Nationals. (Easiest schedule)

The Yankees have three games at Toronto and vs. the Rays (The Rays could rest players as they have nothing to play for)

The Blue Jays have three games left with the Yankees and Orioles. All six games are at home.

I would place a bet on the Jays just because of the value on the odds. I could see the Yankees losing even with a one-game lead based on the schedule. I am not sure about the Rays resting players.  

League Championship Series/World Series

I am sticking with the Rays/Astros to come out of the American League. I have had both tickets for them since the start of the season and have covered monthly. I do have a futures on the Astros to win the World Series. I like what they did at the trade deadline bolstering their bullpen as the starting pitcher market was just too expensive.  I like the Astros to move past the White Sox pretty easily. I think the Rays will also move past the WC winner easily also. 

I have been on the Brewers all year to win the National League and they are the favorites to win the World Series on Baseball-Reference (15%). The concern I have about them is they beat up on the Cubs and Pirates going 29-9 against them and they are just 65-53 against the rest of baseball.

I did add the Giants to win the NL as a hedge two months ago but can they win a series against this Dodgers team? I love the Brewers because I think they can sweep the Braves and set themselves up in the NLCS. Something crazy could happen and the Dodgers or Giants lose in a one-game Wild Card.

The Dodgers are +300 to win the World Series which blows my mind as they are probably going to end up in the Wild Card against the Cardinals and then the Giants. The path to the World Series is very difficult for them even though they are playing incredible baseball.

If I had to pick a World Series today, I would go Rays/Brewers (+1600 BetMGM, 7th in terms of matchup odds) with the Rays winning it all.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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