MLB Betting: Monday Best Bets

MLB Betting: Monday Best Bets

This article is part of our MLB Betting series.

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Overall 102-83-1 +2.8

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles 7:07 PM ET

Robbie Ray vs. Chris Ellis

The Jays and Orioles have played nine games this season and the Jays have scored at least five runs in all but one of them. The Orioles are just 2-18 in their last 20 with the recent 19-game losing streak. They have allowed 7.65 runs per game in the month of August with a 8.90 ERA and 1.84 WHIP on the road. 

Opponents have scored at least five runs against the Orioles in 17 out of 26 games in August (Chris Ellis is a 28-year-old pitcher with a terrible record in the minors. In 13 starts at Triple-A, he has a 6.32 ERA and 1.56 WHIP.

The Jays have been a middle-of-the-pack team on offense in August, but with the Orioles being so bad pitching-wise I will take the head-to-head trend. 

BET – Blue Jays over 5.5 runs (-115) for 1 RW buck

Colorado Rockies at Texas Rangers 8:05 PM ET

German Marquez vs. A.J. Alexy

Whenever I see the Rockies on the road, I look for an angle on the team total under. The Rockies have gone under 4.5 runs in 15 out of their last 17 games while batting .216 on the road in August (13 games). They have averaged just 3.2 runs per game in the 13 road games this month.  Oh yeah, check out the other numbers: .292 OBP, .329 SLG.  While there is always a risk that a rookie pitcher gets blown up, Alexy has had decent numbers in the minors with a 1.66 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 76 strikeouts to 27 walks over 65 innings. 

I will lean on the larger sample size of how poor the Rockies have been on the road. 

BET – Rockies under 4.5 runs (-115) for 1 RW buck

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves 10:10 PM ET

Julio Urias vs. Drew Smyly

The Dodgers and Braves have been on incredible runs in August, but there are some significant trends on the Dodgers/under plays that I love tonight. They are 11-3-1 to the under in 15 home games this month with an average score of 3.9 – 3.0.  While both the Dodgers and Braves have posted close to five runs per game in August, the Dodgers are scoring more runs on the road. 

Urias has posted a sub-2.00 ERA since June 26th which is 56.2 innings (10 starts) and only one start (at Coors) did he allow more than two earned runs. He has not allowed a home run in five consecutive starts.  

BET – Dodgers/Braves under 8.5 runs (+100) for 1 RW buck

BET – Urias under 0.5 home runs allowed (+150) for 1 RW buck

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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