MLB Betting: Monday Best Bets

MLB Betting: Monday Best Bets

This article is part of our MLB Betting series.

Previous article 3-1 +1.6

Overall 97-76-1 +7.95

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees 7:20 PM ET

Huascar Ynoa vs. Jordan Montgomery

Oddsmakers have been overpriced on the Yankees all season with a brief correction in July, but they are back to being overpriced again. The Braves are 16-3 in August and have the better starting pitcher and overall team, plus at home in the National League where the Yankees lose a key power bat.  Yet they are just EVEN money tonight.  I know the Yankees are 17-4 in August with a similar run as the Braves, but I really think the move to an NL park hurts them in this spot. 

BET – Braves (-110 BetMGM) for 1 RW buck

Chicago Cubs    vs. Colorado Rockies    8:05 PM ET

Kyle Hendricks vs. Antonio Senzatela

Both teams are abysmal on offense right now. The Cubs in general since all of the trades and the Rockies have been the worst team in baseball on the road.  The Cubs are 3-17 in August and 0-10 at home with a .186 batting average, striking out 36%, and scoring just 2.3 runs per game. The Rockies are 1-6 in their last seven road games, averaging just 1.7 runs per game, and 27% strikeout rate. 

Hendricks is the type of pitcher that can limit opponents and if he goes over six innings, the numbers are very strong – 7-0, 2.30 ERA, 1.12 WHIP in eight starts in which he went 6.1 innings or more. 

One of my totals systems is to target two very poor offensive teams but there is at least one decent starting pitcher to limit the total number of runs in this game.  Oddsmakers will never post a low total when it is two poor teams going against each other and that is where you can really find value.

BET – Under 9.0 runs (-118 FanDuel) for 1 RW buck

Pittsburgh Pirates    vs. Arizona Diamondbacks   7:05 PM ET

Wil Crowe vs. Humberto Mejia

The Pirates are 4-16 in August with a .208 batting average, 3.0 runs per game, .270 OBP, and .314 SLG. This team just has zero power and no ability to pull together a multiple-run inning.  They are 6-0-2 to the under in their last eight at home and 26th in F5 runs scored. Arizona has not been one of those teams to fully tank as they are 9-11 in August with a .257 average, .326 OBP, but just a .399 SLG and 27th in F5 runs scored.

Wil Crowe has been hurt by walks and the long ball, but he does have a 3.30 ERA in his last six home starts. He has allowed three runs or more in just three out of his last 10 starts and none in any of the six home starts. 

BET – Under 5 runs F5 (-105 BetMGM) for 1 RW buck

BET – Crowe under 2.5 earned runs (-130 BetMGM) for 1 RW buck

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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