MLB Betting: Wednesday's Best Bets

MLB Betting: Wednesday's Best Bets

This article is part of our MLB Betting series.

Previous article (7/29): 3-2, +1.53 RW Bucks         
Season: 47-46-4, -0.47 RW Bucks

We're set for a usual split slate Wednesday, and I like a couple of the wagering possibilities attached a marquee afternoon interleague matinee matchup that features a pair of quality starters, as well as the possibility of another Tigers upset over the BoSox in an evening tilt.

San Diego Padres at Oakland Athletics 3:37 PM ET

Starting Pitchers: Joe Musgrove vs. Frankie Montas

The Pick: Under 4.0 runs - first 5 innings (+100 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck

Secondary Pick: Padres moneyline (+110 at Caesars Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck

Musgrove has been better than his 7-7 record indicates, as he's allowed three earned runs or less in five of his seven losses. The right-hander also boasts a 2.94 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 and 1.0 HR/9 across his 116.1 innings. Musgrove has been a bit more hittable on the road than at home, but he'll be in a pitcher's park Wednesday and faces an A's team that's scuffled to a 28.3 percent strikeout rate, .228 average, .289 OBP, -2.8 wRAA and .292 wOBA against righties at home thus far in the second half of the season.

Montas is still lugging around a bit of a bloated ERA (4.08), but that largely reflects stumbles of a distant past. The right-hander has put together a 2.48 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 11.1 K/9 and 0.7 HR/9 across his last six starts, recording 10 Ks on three occasions during that span. He does have a tough draw in the Padres on Wednesday however, with San Diego knocking righties around on the road since the All-Star break for a .271 average, .818 OPS, 8.5 wRAA and .351 wOBA. 

With two quality starters on the hill, I like the plus money on a low score early, with a Padres upset certainly worth considering as well at another attractive price. 

Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers 7:10 PM ET

Starting Pitchers: Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Casey Mize   

The Pick: Tigers Over 3.5 Total Runs (-125 at DraftKings Sportsbook) for 2 RW Bucks

Secondary Pick: Tigers moneyline (+135 at PointsBet Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck

Rodriguez has generally had a rough go of it this season, as his serviceable 7-6 record is belied by a 5.60 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 1.3 HR/9. Rodriguez does still boats impressive swing-and-miss stuff (career-high 10.9 K/9), but he's been bounced around on the road for a .292 BAA, .342 wOBA, 5.21 ERA and 1.45 WHIP across 65.2 innings. He's yet to face the Tigers this season and an unpleasant surprise might be awaiting him Wednesday in that matchup, considering Detroit's modest 18.9 percent strikeout rate, .285 average, .814 OPS, .349 wOBA and 9.0 wRAA against lefties at home since June 1.  

Mize has shown some impressive mettle during his first truly extended taste of big-league action after logging seven starts in 2020. The young righty has whittled his ERA and WHIP to 3.41 and 1.11, respectively, by pitching to a 5-3 record, 2.99 ERA and 1.03 WHIP across his last 90.1 innings (18 starts). Mize has given up more than three earned runs just once during that span and flummoxed the Red Sox, at Fenway no less, for just one earned run on three hits over six innings when he faced them there back on May 5. Mize also sports an 0.8 HR/9 at home, while the BoSox own a .218 average, .282 OBP, -8.1 wRAA and .282 wOBA against righties on the road since July 1.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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